Defense diplomacy and arms transfers: Demonstrating time-lagged effects

This study empirically examines the relationship between high-level defense diplomacy and bilateral arms transfers. Using GDELT data, the study constructs a new measure of defense-diplomatic activities and combines it with Stockholm International Peace Research Institute bilateral arms transfer data to analyze their dynamic relationship. The results indicate that defense diplomacy is associated with arms transfers in a delayed rather than immediate manner. Arms transfers may therefore exhibit irregular and non-continuous patterns reflecting the complex processes of negotiation, approval, and delivery following diplomatic engagement. The findings also suggest that defense diplomacy may contribute to political coordination and signaling in the arms trade process rather than functioning merely as a symbolic gesture. Overall, the study provides new empirical evidence on how defense diplomacy is associated with the temporal dynamics of international arms transfers.