Carbon Emission Network Centrality and Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China

Cross-regional greenhouse gas emission linkages have contributed to the formation of interconnected carbon emission networks among cities. However, whether a city’s position within such networks influences agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) remains insufficiently understood. Using panel data from 40 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta, China, from 2010 to 2024, this study measures AGTFP using a super-efficiency SBM model and constructs a carbon emission network based on a modified gravity model and social network analysis. Degree centrality is employed to capture cities’ network positions. Two-way fixed-effects, threshold, and moderation models are applied to examine the relationship between network centrality and AGTFP. The results show that carbon emission network centrality is positively associated with AGTFP, primarily through improvements in technical efficiency rather than technological progress. The relationship exhibits a nonlinear pattern: CENC is positively associated with AGTFP when the urban–rural income gap is below a certain threshold, but the association becomes negative when the gap exceeds this threshold. Moreover, stronger water resource management enhances the positive association between network centrality and AGTFP. These findings underscore the significance of network-based coordination and institutional capacity in driving agricultural green transformation.