Planning versus reality. Green Infrastructure in Arid Zones: the case of urban expansion in “La Chimba”, Antofagasta, Chile.

Abstract The study evaluates the discrepancies between the green infrastructure (GI) planned in 1998 and executed in 2024 in La Chimba, an urban expansion area in Antofagasta, Chile, located in the Atacama Desert. It addresses the gap in the literature on systematic studies of the effectiveness of GI in the Global South regions with extreme arid climates, exposed to climate-related risks, such as landslides risks and sensitivity to the urban heat island phenomenon. Statistical and spatial analysis methods are combined with digitized plans and aerial images obtained in 2024. The results show a significant failure in planning, deterioration in connectivity and coverage, a more fragmented and irregular built landscape than planned, and a substantial loss of GI coverage respect to the original planning idea. These changes negatively impact the vulnerability of the La Chimba sector to climate-related risks. The findings highlight the need for ex post evaluation of urban planning for informed decision-making.