The double-edged role of spatial proximity: evidence from museums in crisis time

Cultural institutions often operate within spatially interdependent systems, yet little is known about how spatial dependence behaves under major external shocks. This paper examines whether the intensity and direction of spatial spillovers among museums changed during the pandemic and subsequent recovery. Using data on Italian museums in 2018–2022, we estimate a regime-switching spatial model that allows the strength of global spatial dependence to vary across the pre-pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Our findings suggest that spatial dependence is a structural feature of museum systems, whose implications vary across periods, amplifying losses during crises and supporting recovery in favourable conditions.