Dynamics and coordination of water and carbon footprints in China, 2007–2023: drivers and supply-chain pathways

Coordinated water and carbon management requires identifying not only whether the two environmental pressures change in the same direction, but also which socioeconomic drivers and supply-chain pathways generate co-benefits or trade-offs. Existing studies rarely integrate temporal driver decomposition with pathway-level diagnosis of paired water- and carbon-footprint changes. Using China’s benchmark input-output tables for 2007–2023, we integrated environmentally extended input-output analysis, structural decomposition analysis, structural path decomposition, and a coordination assessment. From 2012 to 2023, China’s consumption-based water footprint decreased from 555.08 to 497.04 billion m³ (− 10.46%), whereas its carbon footprint increased from 9,336.06 to 10,963.28 Mt CO₂ (+ 17.43%). Urban household consumption remained the principal carrier of the water footprint and became an increasingly important source of carbon growth, while fixed capital formation continued to sustain carbon-intensive demand. The final-demand scale effect generated co-increases in every subperiod, whereas direct-intensity and production-structure effects more often contributed to co-reductions but were not uniformly aligned across periods and sectors. Water-footprint changes were concentrated in agriculture- and food-related pathways, whereas carbon-footprint changes were more strongly associated with electricity and heat supply, materials, construction, and capital formation. These distinct supply-chain backbones explain why water-saving improvements did not automatically produce parallel carbon mitigation. The post-2012 decline in China’s water footprint cannot be interpreted as evidence of simultaneous carbon mitigation. By separating directional coordination states from relative responses and tracing them to specific drivers and supply-chain pathways, this study identifies where integrated water–carbon intervention is feasible and where separate controls remain necessary. Effective management should coordinate agriculture–food water-saving measures with the decarbonization of electricity-, materials-, construction-, and investment-related supply chains.