ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF GREEN FINANCE IN THE CONTEXT OF TRANSFORMATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EU COUNTRIES

The aim of the study was to examine the effectiveness of green finance in the context of transformational processes and economic growth in the European Union countries during 2015–2024. Specifically, the study contributes by testing how institutional maturity is associated with heterogeneous patterns in the relationship between green finance and macroeconomic outcomes across EU member states. The study analyzed the dynamics of investment in the green economy, the structure of financial instruments, the political initiatives of the European Union and their association with macroeconomic indicators. To ensure the comprehensiveness of the analysis, quantitative methods were applied, including correlation and regression analysis based on official statistical data from Eurostat, the European Central Bank and specialized agencies. It was observed that the total volume of green investments in the European Union increased by approximately 365%, from EUR 89 billion in 2015 to EUR 412 billion in 2024, while the volume of green bond issuance reached EUR 253.4 billion in 2024, according to the underlying datasets used in the analysis. Western and Northern European countries — in particular Germany, Sweden and France — demonstrated higher levels of observed green finance activity and related macroeconomic indicators. This was accompanied by an increase in the share of renewable energy to around 65% in selected country groups, alongside job creation estimates exceeding 400,000 in Germany according to reported statistical sources, and a reduction in the unemployment rate of approximately 1.2 percentage points annually after 2020 in the observed period. These patterns are reported as temporal associations rather than causal effects. In Central and Eastern European countries such as Poland and Hungary, lower levels of green investment activity were observed, which may be linked to structural constraints such as dependency on fossil fuels and slower energy infrastructure modernization. A positive correlation between green investment and GDP growth was identified: in countries with higher levels of institutional maturity, the correlation coefficient was above approximately 0.75 in the analyzed sample. The forecast to 2030 suggests a potential increase in green finance volumes up to approximately EUR 1.2 trillion under continued regulatory development scenarios, while macroeconomic outcomes are discussed as scenario-dependent projections rather than deterministic effects. The practical relevance of the findings lies in the potential to inform financing mechanisms for environmental projects, support sustainable growth strategies and contribute to discussions on macroeconomic stability at the level of EU countries.