Heterogeneity in the relationship between undocumented immigration and violent victimization: Evidence from the National Crime Victimization Survey

Abstract Undocumented immigration and its relation to public safety are subjects of intense political debate in the United States. Empirical evidence remains limited, and prior research has not examined how the relationship between undocumented immigration and victimization risk may vary by individuals’ citizenship status and local immigration policy context. We examine these moderating factors by merging county‐level estimates of undocumented immigrants and immigration enforcement policies with area‐identified National Crime Victimization Survey data from 2017 to 2019. We find that, net of extensive controls, residents in counties with higher shares of undocumented immigrants have lower odds of violent victimization. This association holds for US‐born citizens, with no evidence of elevated risk among socioeconomically disadvantaged US‐born residents in higher undocumented immigration counties. Policy context conditions these patterns: The protective association between undocumented immigration and violent victimization is absent in counties with 287(g) agreements but is strengthened in counties with anti‐detainer policies, for both noncitizens and US‐born citizens. These findings are inconsistent with claims that restrictive immigration policies protect native‐born residents, especially those who are socioeconomically vulnerable to competition with immigrants. Instead, they conform to the view that more inclusive policies that conserve local resources for community needs are more conducive to public safety.