Anthropogenic warming is projected to divert atmospheric rivers toward densely populated Asia

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key drivers of extreme precipitation, and their future changes indicate major climate risks. Historical variations of ARs in Asia exhibited dynamic suppressions and thermodynamic enhancements under climate change, yet critical gaps remain in understanding the future impacts of these competing mechanisms. Based on a framework integrating the largest ensemble of multiple high-resolution global climate models for AR projection with multiple AR detection configurations, the projected changes reveal a dynamic inhibition of near-future ARs dominating lower latitudes under warming, while thermodynamic enhancement dominates densely populated subtropical and midlatitude regions. This pattern relates to the anomalously steered moisture transport by the westward-extended subtropical high. Consequently, population exposure to AR-induced extreme precipitation is projected to increase across 58% of terrestrial AR-active zones, particularly in urban regions within northern China, India, and Bangladesh (+24–59%). These findings underscore the urgency of implementing adaptation strategies against AR hazards in these regions during the coming decades.