Iceberg Freshwater Transport Alleviates Future Weakening of Antarctic Bottom Water Formation

Abstract Intensification of calving in a warmer future climate would result in production of more Antarctic icebergs, and iceberg freshwater flux would play a more consequential role in ice‐climate interactions. Distribution of iceberg freshwater flux under future climate scenarios, however, has not been assessed with full consideration of changes and uncertainties in climate conditions and calving rates. Here we drive an iceberg model with output from an ice sheet model and five climate models to simulate iceberg freshwater flux under an intensive future warming scenario. Results show that Antarctic iceberg freshwater flux increases markedly and may exceed ice shelf basal melting. Iceberg freshwater exported to the open ocean is governed by competing effects from atmospheric‐oceanic warming and changes in winds and currents. Simulations consistently show an increase in the portion of iceberg freshwater exported beyond Antarctic continental shelves, which may alleviate the future weakening of Antarctic Bottom Water formation.