Carbon offset-aware economic scheduling using echo state enhanced variational mode decomposition and ARIMA forecasting for P2X-based city energy ecosystems with joint green-carbon certificate and socio-financial welfare

Urban energy systems in sustainable cities are facing increasing challenges due to the simultaneous integration of hydrogen-based conversion, carbon regulation, renewable energy uncertainty, and emerging electric mobility demands. This paper develops a low-carbon optimization framework for a Multi-Energy Distribution Network that coordinates electricity, gas, heat, and hydrogen infrastructures while incorporating Power-to-X technologies, hydrogen-enriched gas utilization, carbon capture, and aerial electric mobility. The proposed framework integrates ADTAN-driven Electric Taxi Drone demand modeling, Digital Twin synchronization, Blockchain-based trusted coordination, ARIMA-based source-load forecasting, and a hybrid Stackelberg Game, Mechanism Design, and Nash Game structure within a unified scheduling framework. A mixed-integer optimization model is formulated considering green certificate trading, ladder-type carbon trading, and socio-financial welfare to achieve coordinated multi-energy management. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is evaluated through a large-scale urban energy system case study. Numerical results demonstrate that coordinated hydrogen blending and environmental market mechanisms reduce operating costs by 25.2% and carbon emissions by 17.2% compared with the baseline case. Moreover, wind power utilization increases from 71.5% to 98.8%, while renewable curtailment penalties decrease by more than 95%. The integrated Digital Twin and Blockchain layers further enhance operational transparency, synchronization capability, and coordination reliability, supporting the development of resilient and low-carbon urban energy management strategies.