Overstated Lifecycle Lead Risks of Perovskite Solar Cells and the Hidden Transboundary Displacement

Abstract The accelerating deployment of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) has intensified scrutiny of their lead content and associated environmental risks. We combined dynamic material flow analysis with freshwater ecotoxicity modeling to project lifecycle lead stocks, flows, and leakage for PSCs in China from 2026 to 2060, benchmarked against crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaics including a prospective lead-free soldering pathway. Under business-as-usual conditions, the cumulative lead input into the PSC life cycle reaches 29.2 ± 3.1 kt, 58.9% of which is lost, mainly in manufacturing. However, PSCs reduce cumulative lead leakage by up to 94% relative to the lead-solder c-Si baseline at equivalent installed capacity under the best practice scenario. All PSC mitigation scenarios, including cleaner production, extended service lifetimes, and enhanced recycling, also outperform the c-Si lead-free trajectory by 2060. These domestic environmental gains are complicated by international trade, which spatially redistributes environmental burdens. Developed economies outsource manufacturing impacts while tropical developing countries incur domestic leakages up to 3-fold higher than upstream leakage, driven by accelerated degradation and limited recycling infrastructure. These findings demonstrate that lead does not constitute a prohibitive barrier to PSC commercialization, if governance evolves from material restrictions toward transnational extended producer responsibility systems.