FinTech development and agricultural modernization in China: the roles of rural digital infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and demographic dependency

This paper explores how fintech affects multidimensional agricultural modernization using balanced panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2023, with 372 province-year observations. It establishes an integrated theoretical framework: fintech alleviates rural financing frictions by cutting information asymmetry and transaction costs, while rural digital infrastructure and industrial upgrading act as potential transmission channels, and demographic dependency ratio serves as a moderating factor. Province fixed-effects regressions confirm fintech significantly advances agricultural modernization, a conclusion robust to instrumental variable estimation, alternative indicators, sample adjustments and variable supplements. Mediation tests show fintech positively boosts rural internet infrastructure and industrial upgrading, yet neither channel holds statistical significance in joint regressions, failing to verify complete mediation though both act as complementary factors. The significantly negative interaction term reveals heavy demographic dependency weakens fintech’s positive influence. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates the effect varies across regions, urbanization levels, infrastructure and economic development stages. This study extends relevant literature by adopting a comprehensive agricultural modernization index, distinguishing complementary conditions from formal transmission mechanisms, and identifying demographic constraints. It proposes targeted digital finance strategies, rural digital connectivity investment, age-inclusive financial services and adaptive governance to advance sustainable agricultural modernization.