Dynamics and bifurcation analysis of an SEQIRV model for Mpox transmission under vaccination, quarantine, and behavioural responses

The re-emergence of the Mpox virus in 2022 indicates the need for effective intervention strategies to prevent disease. This study develops a deterministic SEQIRV model to understand the disease dynamics and also analyzes the adaptive vaccination strategies, unscheduled quarantine measures, and effect of behavioral responses on disease transmission. The model also investigates the effects of targeted vaccination in several population groups, for example, high-risk groups, men who have sex with men (MSM), and healthcare workers, by combining compartmental epidemiological modeling with dynamic transmission analysis. We investigate how different vaccination strategies influence the direction of bifurcation and analyze the corresponding basins of attraction for various initial exposed and infected population levels. The results reveal that an initially high vaccination rate is less effective than maintaining a high vaccination rate throughout the outbreak, suggesting that sustained vaccination efforts are essential for long-term epidemic control. In addition, early implementation of quarantine significantly reduces the epidemic peak; on the other hand, quarantine leakage weakens the effectiveness of quarantine and may fuel disease persistence. The results also demonstrate that behavioral responses, such as increased awareness and government-induced restrictions, significantly reduce disease spread. Finally, this study identifies key intervention strategies to support policymakers in designing and implementing effective control measures against emerging zoonotic diseases such as Mpox.