LAB #2687 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3% (+1.4pp, n=164) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORT entries (4048.74 and 4051.79) and likely the USDJPY SHORT (157.883), as those occurred at phase distances outside the 5–10° band. Removing those three trades (all losses) would have flipped the window from 5W/5L to 5W/2L, raising the win rate from 50% to ~71% and turning a net PnL negative into a clear positive. However, the filter would also have excluded the winning XAUUSD LONG (4270.17) if its phase distance fell outside the band — but based on the backtest's +1.4pp gain, the net effect here is strongly favorable. The one REJECTED/open USDCHF trade is unaffected, but its outcome would need to be tracked to avoid selection bias. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a + Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-25
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22951784
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint