LAB #2687 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3% (+1.4pp, n=164) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORT entries (4048.74 and 4051.79) and likely the USDJPY SHORT (157.883), as those occurred at phase distances outside the 5–10° band. Removing those three trades (all losses) would have flipped the window from 5W/5L to 5W/2L, raising the win rate from 50% to ~71% and turning a net PnL negative into a clear positive. However, the filter would also have excluded the winning XAUUSD LONG (4270.17) if its phase distance fell outside the band — but based on the backtest's +1.4pp gain, the net effect here is strongly favorable. The one REJECTED/open USDCHF trade is unaffected, but its outcome would need to be tracked to avoid selection bias. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a + Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22951784
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2687 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2687 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3% (+1.4pp, n=164) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORT entries (4048.74 and 4051.79) and likely the USDJPY SHORT (157.883), as those occurred at phase distances outside the 5–10° band. Removing those three trades (all losses) would have flipped the window from 5W/5L to 5W/2L, raising the win rate from 50% to ~71% and turning a net PnL negative into a clear positive. However, the filter would also have excluded the winning XAUUSD LONG (4270.17) if its phase distance fell outside the band — but based on the backtest's +1.4pp gain, the net effect here is strongly favorable. The one REJECTED/open USDCHF trade is unaffected, but its outcome would need to be tracked to avoid selection bias. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a + Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2687 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS