Greenhouse farming and agrarian transformation in post-conflict Somalia: Drivers, livelihood impacts, and youth engagement

Somalia’s agribusiness sector is a foundation of its economy, but remains highly vulnerable to climatic shocks, infrastructure deficits, and institutional weaknesses that intensify food insecurity, poverty, and youth unemployment. This study examines determinants of greenhouse technology adoption and its effects on agricultural productivity and youth empowerment in Somalia’s post-conflict context. Using a quantitative explanatory design, survey data from 93 youth agripreneurs across three federal states were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Results indicate that infrastructure development is the strongest direct predictor of productivity (β = 0.40, p < 0.001), while technology adoption mediated the effects of finance (β = 0.08, p = 0.028) and climate adaptation (β = 0.33, p < 0.001). Although formal land access exists, tenure insecurity and harassment disproportionately affect women and youth. Greenhouse farming shows strong potential as a climate-smart model for resilience and inclusion, however, it constrained by high initial capital costs, skills shortages, and market overconcentration in a narrow range of high-value crops. The study recommends integrated interventions that combine infrastructure investment, Sharia-compliant financing, secure land tenure, digital extension services, tax incentives, agribusiness parks, and expedited lease registration to support sustainable and inclusive agricultural transformation in fragile-state contexts.