System dynamics analysis of prefabricated building policy effects in Hainan, China

Prefabricated buildings (PB) are an important pathway for low-carbon transformation in the construction industry and have been widely promoted worldwide. However, limited understanding of the synergistic effects, long-term impacts, and dynamic evolution of policy interventions has resulted in inefficient policy implementation. This highlights the need for systematic research on policy optimisation. In Hainan Province, PB development has progressed rapidly, driven primarily by policy intervention, making it a typical case for exploring PB development mechanisms and policy effects under a policy-driven model. This study adopts system dynamics (SD) as the core framework to analyse the implementation effects of PB policies. It integrates text mining, linear regression analysis, and the entropy-weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method to identify key variables, establish equations among the variables, and quantify policy intensity for model construction. The SD model is applied and validated using Hainan Province as a case study. Simulation results reveal the driving mechanisms of different policy instruments, the evolutionary patterns of policy combinations, and their carbon dioxide emission reduction potential. Sensitivity analysis further provides policy optimisation strategies. The findings offer theoretical insights and practical guidance for PB promotion, policy improvement, and low-carbon development.