Development of a predictive model for vigour loss in soybean seed

Abstract Maintaining high vigour values during post-harvest storage is a key goal for the seed industry, since high-vigour seeds ensure proper crop establishment under different agroclimatic conditions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of seed moisture, storage temperature, initial vigour and damage on vigour loss in soybean seeds and to develop a model to predict this process based on the evaluated variables. For this purpose, soybean lots with different moisture and vigour levels were obtained by accelerated ageing (AAT) at harvest. Seeds were hermetically stored at 15°C and 25°C for seven months, and vigour was assessed at regular intervals using AAT (72 h at 41°C). The dynamics of vigour loss were fitted to a negative cumulative normal distribution function, and the obtained parameters (P V50 and σ) were related through regressions to initial quality and storage conditions. The model accurately predicted vigour loss in most cases. The results allowed quantification of the impact of each factor and simulation of scenarios to improve management and maintain vigour during storage. This provides a useful tool to optimize decisions regarding storage, monitoring and marketing of soybean seeds.