Structural-Functional Asynchrony and Multiscale Heterogeneity in Green-Space Ecological Resilience Assessment: A Multi-Scenario Analysis of Land Use in Jiangsu Province

Land-use pathways reshape green-space extent, turnover, and spatial configuration, producing asynchronous structural and functional responses. Using 2020 as the baseline, we simulated five land-use scenarios for Jiangsu Province in 2030 with the intPLUS(v1.3.1) land-use simulation model. Landscape-structure metrics calculated using FRAGSTATS(v4.2) and ecosystem-function indicators estimated using InVEST(v3.14.3) were integrated under fixed normalization bounds and AHP-CRITIC weights, and resilience was assessed for the full green-space system and spatially matched green-space units. At the provincial level, the green-space constraint scenario (GSC) produced the smallest net green-space loss and land-use turnover (55.28 and 214.0 km2, respectively) and the smallest decline in composite ecological resilience in the full green-space system (0.54%, compared with 8.08% under business as usual (BAU) and 12.09% under urban expansion (UE)). Differences among scenarios were driven mainly by structural resilience, whereas individual functions responded differently: habitat quality was highest under ecological protection (EP), while annual water yield was relatively high under cropland protection (CP). At the city level, mean composite resilience under CP, EP, and GSC exceeded that under BAU in all 13 prefecture-level cities, although the magnitude and structural–functional balance of the responses varied among cities. At the local level, gains and losses coexisted within every scenario, indicating that provincial and city-level averages did not represent all locations. These findings reveal structural–functional asynchrony and multiscale heterogeneity and support hierarchical scenario screening: provincial comparisons inform broad land-use constraints, city-level analyses differentiate regional responses, and local maps identify areas requiring further verification.