Understanding Heat Waves in Rajasthan: Spatio‐Temporal Analysis, Hazard Assessment, and Hotspot Mapping

ABSTRACT Heat waves (HWs) cause substantial loss of life and economic damage globally, and in Rajasthan, India's most climatologically exposed state, their intense and prolonged nature poses a severe threat to human health. Despite this, comprehensive studies examining heat wave (HW) characteristics, hotspot identification, and management frameworks for Rajasthan remain scarce. To address this gap, this study analyses HW characteristics for March–June (1988–2021) using India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded data, delineates hazard hotspot zones through six frequency, intensity, and severity parameters weighted via the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and assesses temporal trends using the Mann–Kendall test. Results reveal significant spatial and temporal variations in the frequency, severity, and intensity of HWs. June records the highest HW frequency, while May is the most thermally extreme month, averaging approximately 3 days per year with temperatures exceeding 45°C, predominantly concentrated in the eastern part of the state, with Bharatpur (east) and Bikaner (northwest) among the most severely affected districts. AHP‐based hazard mapping identifies Bikaner, Churu, Ganganagar, and Hanumangarh in the northern region, and Alwar, Bharatpur, Dholpur, and eastern Jaipur in the eastern region, as primary hotspot districts. Their intensification is driven by declining rainfall, reduced soil moisture, and urban heat dome effects, factors that reinforce positive land–atmosphere feedbacks. Mann–Kendall analysis reveals statistically significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trends in HW frequency across eastern and southern districts, including Alwar, Bharatpur, Dholpur, and Karauli in the eastern region, and Banswara and Dungarpur in the southern region. Southwestern districts, Barmer, Jaisalmer, Jalore, Sirohi, and Jhalawar, show a non‐significant decreasing trend, which may be attributable to increased rainfall that sustains soil moisture and moderate temperatures through evaporative cooling. Critically, hotspot districts face compounding heat stress and water scarcity risks, with adverse implications for ecosystems and carbon cycling. The key findings of the study provide valuable insights for disaster management agencies and planning departments in addressing future HW events and implementing effective risk reduction strategies in the region. This research represents an important step toward developing a comprehensive HWs hazard map for the entire state of Rajasthan, which will aid in safeguarding human lives and property.