Integrating climate change into pattern-based modelling of agricultural and forest land dynamics in Romania

Abstract Climate change is increasingly reshaping land-use/land-cover dynamics worldwide, yet the magnitude and spatial distribution of these changes remain insufficiently understood at the regional scale. This study assesses the potential impact of near-future climatic conditions on agricultural and forest lands in Romania, by integrating three climate projections, namely SSP1–2.6 , SSP3–7.0 , and SSP5–8.5 , into a spatially explicit land-use pattern-based modelling framework, i.e., CLUE-s model ( the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent ). To isolate the climatic signal, non-climatic drivers were held constant across scenarios, while changes in temperature and precipitation were introduced as the only dynamic inputs. The results indicate a generally high persistence of agricultural and forest classes, suggesting limited overall spatial reorganization up to 2050. However, several agricultural and forest classes exhibit localized shifts and transition hotspots, particularly in mountain regions, indicating increased sensitivity to changing climatic conditions. Across scenarios, temperature appears to exert a more consistent influence than precipitation on the projected spatial redistribution of these land systems. These findings highlight the need for regionally adaptive land-management strategies to support climate-resilient agricultural and forestry sectors.