Measuring Resilience as Adaptive Flexibility: Development and Application of a Revenue Trajectory Organizational Resilience Index (RT-ORI) During Prolonged Adverse Events

Abstract Organizations operating in turbulent environments require flexible systems that support timely reconfiguration and decision-making during disruption. Yet, most organizational resilience measures emphasize pre-event preparedness and offer limited guidance for managers seeking a data-based view of resilience while a crisis is unfolding. Building on four generalized revenue-response trajectories observed among firms operating within Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we develop a formula-based Revenue Trajectory Organizational Resilience Index (RT-ORI) that can be computed from firm-level numerical inputs at any point in time. RT-ORI operationalizes resilience as an outcome-based, time-indexed proxy of economic-operational resilience, using the firm’s revenue trajectory across successive intervals as an observable indicator contextualized by external demand conditions and internal resource constraints. The index integrates: (1) revenue shock magnitude and recovery, (2) change in market demand, and (3) shocks to five resource classes—assets, infrastructure, materials, capital, and staff—with optional weights to reflect firm priorities. We specify design criteria for RT-ORI and demonstrate its intended behavior using survey data from 75 Ukrainian organizations observed across four time points (January 2022 to March 2024). The empirical results are presented as an illustrative application showing how demand and resource “headwinds/tailwinds” shape distinct resilience trajectories; sensitivity and scenario checks indicate stable qualitative ordering under reasonable parameter variations. RT-ORI is intended primarily as a repeatable within-firm KPI for tracking resilience over time; cross-firm comparison is feasible only under standardized inputs and coefficients .