LAB #2661 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.1% to 43.8% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.1% to 43.8% (+12.7pp, n=121) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION filter to the 10 live trades above would have removed the 4 LOSSES (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74, USDJPY SHORT 157.883, GBPUSD SHORT 1.34508, XAUUSD SHORT 4051.79) — all of which occurred outside that phase. It would also have removed 3 WINs (GBPUSD SHORT 1.34407, XAUUSD LONG 4270.17, AUDUSD LONG 0.70264), leaving 3 trades (USDCHF SHORT, GBPUSD SHORT 1.34461, USDCAD SHORT) with 2 wins and 1 pending. Net effect: win rate on closed trades jumps from 5/9 (55.6%) to 2/2 (100%), but total PnL drops sharply because you forfeit three winners to avoid four losers — a classic risk-reduction trade-off, not a profit boost. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +12.7pp win-rate gain (31.1%→43.8%) will likely hold if the phase filter is stable, but expect a 30-50% reduction in trade Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com