Spatial-Industrial Minimum Load: Temporal Threshold Convergence and Regional Reconfiguration Capacity in Mature Industrial Regions

This Concept Note develops a time-based framework for analysing industrial transformation in mature industrial regions. It examines the relationship between the erosion of spatially embedded industrial functions and the time required to reconfigure competences, infrastructures and institutional resources into viable alternative development paths. The framework introduces Spatial-Industrial Minimum Load (SIML) as a heuristic, configuration-dependent boundary condition and focuses on two temporally specified hypotheses. First, erosion of transformation-relevant resources may increase regional reconfiguration time while critical functional losses approach. Second, transformation demands that converge in time may create capacity congestion through competition for shared regional resources, even where the affected functions are not directly connected through erosion-side cascades. The framework is positioned in relation to research on underload cascading failures, viability theory, industrial path decline, multi-system transitions, regional resilience and adaptive pathways. A retrospective application to the Ruhr region and a prospective application to the Stuttgart–Neckar industrial corridor are proposed. Version 1.0.