INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY, SOIL QUALITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY FOR FOOD CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN BENUE STATE, NIGERIA

Food security in Benue State, Nigeria, has become a problem due to climate variability, rapid land degradation, and declining agricultural productivity. The study evaluated climatic trends and deterioration, soil quality, productivity, and farmers' adaptive capacity in each of the six Local Government Areas (Katsina-Ala, Ukum, Makurdi, Guma, Otukpo and Apa). Descriptive statistics, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Sen's slope estimation, ANOVA, multiple regression, and hierarchical cluster analysis were employed to examine climatic data for the period 2005–2024, soil properties, crop yields, and farm environmental and socio-economic information from 600 respondents. Temperature and rainfall increased by 0.041°C/year and 0.052°C/year, respectively, and rainfall decreased by 4.12mm/year, a significant decline. The number of rainy days decreased by 0.63 days/year, and the frequency of flood and drought events increased by 0.21 and 0.16 events/year, respectively. The properties of soil showed great differences among the LGAs; the highest bulk density was 1.49 g/cm³ in Makurdi Local Government Area, while the lowest moisture content was 13.7% in Makurdi LGA, with Otukpo LGA having comparatively good soil. Crop yields also varied widely; Otukpo produced the highest yields in most crops. Between 2005–2009 and 2020–2024, yam, cassava, maize, soybean, and sorghum yields declined by 20.4%, 19.5%, 30.3%, 29.4%, and 28.4%, respectively, while rice yields increased by 23.1%. Multiple regression analysis showed that soil organic matter had the greatest positive influence on yield, and exposure to flooding and temperature had the greatest negative influences.