LAB #2668 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: XAUUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.1% to 58.1% (+27.0pp, n=74) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: XAUUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.1% to 58.1% (+27.0pp, n=74) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, applying the XAUUSD LONG-only filter would have removed the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries 4048.74 and 4051.79) while retaining the single XAUUSD LONG win (4270.17). That directly converts 2 losses into 0 trades, raising the window win rate from 6/10 (60%) to 6/8 (75%) and adding roughly +2R to net PnL (assuming ~1R loss each). However, the filter would also block any future XAUUSD SHORT opportunities that might win — the sample is tiny (n=74), and the +27pp claim is based on a backtest that may include regime-specific gold behavior. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a XAUUSD LONG-only filter could improve win rate if gold remains in a structural uptrend, but it introduces a severe directional bias that will underperform in range-bound or bearish gold phases. The risk is overf Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com