Wood use scenarios in Sweden through integrated monetary-physical input–output framework

Abstract Governments promote expanded wood use to meet climate and bioeconomy goals, yet policy requires comprehensive evidence. We develop an integrated monetary-physical input–output framework for Sweden linking structural changes in wood use to macroeconomic performance, GHG emissions, and carbon stock dynamics in wood-based products and forests. We simulate 3 stylised scenarios for 2020–2040: (i) cross-laminated timber (CLT) construction; (ii) waste recycling; and (iii) wood cascade combining both with a harvest constraint met by reduced pulp and paper demand. Across scenarios, aggregate economic and production-based GHG effects remain modest at the national level, while impacts on the forest-based economy and carbon-stock trajectories are more pronounced. CLT construction delivers the strongest macroeconomic gains (value added +5.1 bn SEK yr⁻ 1 ; employment +8.5 thousand yr⁻ 1 ) and lowers production-based GHG emissions (− 0.3 Mt CO₂e yr⁻ 1 ), but reduces the forest carbon pool, yielding a negative system carbon balance (− 63 Mt carbon (C) by 2040). Waste recycling increases value added (+ 4.3 bn SEK yr⁻ 1 ) and improves system carbon (+ 7 Mt C by 2040). Wood cascade increases value added (+ 2.4 bn SEK yr⁻ 1 ), achieves the largest GHG reduction (− 0.53 Mt CO₂e yr⁻ 1 ), and yields a positive system carbon trajectory (+ 33 Mt C by 2040). Overall, cascading secures climate benefits while maintaining economic performance, albeit with a shift away from pulp, paper, and mineral production toward long-lived wood products, whereas substitution without harvest limits risks eroding forest resources and the carbon sink. The framework enables system-wide comparison of wood-use strategies, revealing economy-forest trade-offs and supporting integrated assessment across monetary and physical accounts.