From Prosecution to Co-optation and Capture: Electoral Uncertainty and Reversals of Anti-Corruption Efforts in Serbia

This article examines why incumbents in electoral democracies reverse initial efforts to prosecute political corruption committed under previous governments. Using a process-tracing comparison of Serbia before and after the 2014 elections, it argues that varying levels of electoral uncertainty shape incumbent incentives. High electoral uncertainty incentivises prosecutions to broaden electoral support, while consolidation of power shifts priorities towards co-opting business and political elites and judicial capture. Co-optation secures resources to finance the incumbent’s political machine and weakens the opposition, while judicial capture addresses the strategic fear of insulated courts and prosecutors potentially threatening the incumbent’s own corrupt network.