Persistent exposure to crude oil price uncertainty in maritime freight rates implications for sustainability and intergenerational justice

This study examines the scale-dependent relationship between crude oil price uncertainty and maritime freight rates, offering a forward-looking perspective on how oil market vulnerability affects the sustainability of maritime transport. Using monthly data from January 2015 to February 2025, the study examines the relationship between the Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) and three representative Baltic freight indices: The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI), the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The empirical framework combines econometric tests with Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) and wavelet-based analysis. The DCCA analysis reveals heterogeneous and persistent relationships across maritime freight markets, with the strongest relationship between OVX and BDTI, while BDI shows comparatively weaker dependence. The wavelet-based analysis indicates that the dependence is concentrated primarily at medium- and long-term scales, with more pronounced co-movement observed during periods of heightened oil-market uncertainty. The findings provide practical insights for freight risk management, fuel-efficiency strategies, fleet investment, and maritime financial planning, with broader implications for sustainable maritime transport in the context of SDGs 7 and 13.