Heterogeneous Macroeconomic Vulnerability of Developing Economies to Geopolitical Energy Shocks

ABSTRACT This study examines how structural differences shape the projected macroeconomic effects of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption across 40 importer‐focused developing economies. Using 2023–2025 structural averages, the analysis combines calibrated 30‐, 90‐, and 180‐day disruption paths with threshold estimation, scenario‐specific buffer‐interaction models, and within‐country duration contrasts. The projected inflation association becomes substantially stronger above an estimated Gulf energy import‐dependence threshold of 48.1% (95% CI [46.0%, 52.0%]). At or below the threshold, the estimated slope is 0.052, compared with 0.162 above it (bootstrap p < 0.001). Deployable foreign exchange reserve cover and strategic petroleum reserve access are associated with weaker projected stagflationary transmission, whereas external debt strengthens it. Moving from 1 to 6 months of deployable reserve cover reduces the projected marginal shock association by approximately 46%, while strategic‐stock access is associated with 44%–49% lower severity across the three scenarios. A separate remittance calibration shows how Gulf‐linked household income and foreign exchange receipts can reinforce energy‐import pressure. Duration effects are also conditional: marginal damage accelerates from the 90‐ to the 180‐day scenario among the most vulnerable economies but begins to flatten among better‐buffered countries. The findings develop a vulnerability‐conversion account in which exposure, usable liquidity, debt, physical stocks, remittance links, and buffer exhaustion jointly shape divergent crisis trajectories.