LAB #2693 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 35.3% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 35.3% (+4.4pp, n=442) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the current live window would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) and the GBPUSD SHORT loss at 1.34508, assuming those entries had phase distances >2°. That removes 3 of 4 losses from the 10-trade sample, leaving 5 wins and 1 loss (the USDJPY loss) — a win rate jump from 50% to ~83% on the remaining 6 trades. The rejected USDCHF trade would remain excluded, and the two GBPUSD wins would stay. Net PnL delta is strongly positive, roughly +2.5R to +3R, but the sample is tiny and the filter may have simply caught a lucky streak. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) will reduce trade frequency significantly — likely by 40–60% — because phase alignment that tight is rare across multiple instru Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22951926
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2693 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 35.3% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2693 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 35.3% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 35.3% (+4.4pp, n=442) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the current live window would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) and the GBPUSD SHORT loss at 1.34508, assuming those entries had phase distances >2°. That removes 3 of 4 losses from the 10-trade sample, leaving 5 wins and 1 loss (the USDJPY loss) — a win rate jump from 50% to ~83% on the remaining 6 trades. The rejected USDCHF trade would remain excluded, and the two GBPUSD wins would stay. Net PnL delta is strongly positive, roughly +2.5R to +3R, but the sample is tiny and the filter may have simply caught a lucky streak. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) will reduce trade frequency significantly — likely by 40–60% — because phase alignment that tight is rare across multiple instru Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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