Preregistration: Blind Cost Prediction for Riftbound Set 5 (Radiance) with a Frozen Designer-Pricing Model

Preregistration of a blind out-of-sample test of a designer-pricing model for the Riftbound trading card game. The model (pricing rule set v6, described in the preprint https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22909590) is frozen on 24 September 2026, before the preview season of Set 5 (Radiance). Radiance cards will be priced from their text without seeing their costs, and eight hypotheses are tested with pre-specified criteria. Version 2 adds an addendum, written before any Radiance card was priced, registering two secondary hypotheses: H9 (repeatable triggers are booked at about half an activation, a quarter under an independent condition) and H10 (one-off "if…then" conditional bonuses are booked at zero). The original files are unchanged. Addendum SHA-256: b06f822bf10b76abe036663a07fb3528a8d9a10d62c76446f15be7514f38129b; scoring script score_h9_h10.py: 2b5a02c5fd8f96cc506d02c910321131863386042c8e8b5fd60f9ca38aed9ccd.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22950713
Primary Topic
Sports Analytics and Performance
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Preregistration: Blind Cost Prediction for Riftbound Set 5 (Radiance) with a Frozen Designer-Pricing Model

Jiahao Chen, Jiaxi Catherine Lee
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Sports Analytics and Performance
article

Preregistration: Blind Cost Prediction for Riftbound Set 5 (Radiance) with a Frozen Designer-Pricing Model

Jiahao Chen, Jiaxi Catherine Lee
article en

Abstract

Preregistration of a blind out-of-sample test of a designer-pricing model for the Riftbound trading card game. The model (pricing rule set v6, described in the preprint https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22909590) is frozen on 24 September 2026, before the preview season of Set 5 (Radiance). Radiance cards will be priced from their text without seeing their costs, and eight hypotheses are tested with pre-specified criteria. Version 2 adds an addendum, written before any Radiance card was priced, registering two secondary hypotheses: H9 (repeatable triggers are booked at about half an activation, a quarter under an independent condition) and H10 (one-off "if…then" conditional bonuses are booked at zero). The original files are unchanged. Addendum SHA-256: b06f822bf10b76abe036663a07fb3528a8d9a10d62c76446f15be7514f38129b; scoring script score_h9_h10.py: 2b5a02c5fd8f96cc506d02c910321131863386042c8e8b5fd60f9ca38aed9ccd.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Sports Analytics and Performance
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