Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces and Sustainable Rural Development: Spatial Spillovers, Income Distribution Effects, and Farmers’ Income Growth in China

Within China’s agricultural sector, agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) constitute an emerging productivity paradigm; however, further empirical testing is still needed to determine whether and through what mechanisms they affect rural economic sustainability. Previous academic studies have mainly examined the impact of ANQPFs on production efficiency, while paying relatively little attention to income distribution and spatial diffusion. Based on panel data from 286 prefecture-level cities in China over the period 2014–2023, this study evaluates how ANQPFs affect farmers’ income growth, distributional equity, and spatial diffusion. Methodologically, this study combines a double machine learning approach with interaction term specifications and spatial econometric techniques to identify nonlinear associations and spatial dependence. Empirical evidence reveals a pronounced positive contribution of ANQPFs to farmers’ income growth, mainly through digital productivity and technological productivity, with rural industrial integration and rural entrepreneurship playing key roles as transmission pathways. Notably, these income-enhancing effects exhibit significant inclusive characteristics: marginal gains are substantially larger for low-income regions and groups, implying that ANQPFs help narrow rather than widen rural income disparities. In addition, ANQPFs generate considerable positive spatial spillover effects, with economic advantages radiating to neighboring areas. This paper offers empirical insights into the role of ANQPFs in promoting farmers’ income growth, narrowing income disparities, and generating spatial spillovers, and offers policy recommendations aimed at advancing sustainable rural economic development.