An Integrated Fuzzy Logic Model for Economic Uncertainty Analysis in Green Hydrogen Production Based on Offshore Wind Energy

Since achieving carbon neutrality and promoting sustainable development are of strategic importance, this study looks into whether it is feasible to produce green hydrogen from offshore wind power in Turkey by means of a comprehensive techno-economic and policy model that includes fuzzy uncertainty. The research starts off by looking at the relevant policies, the current market situation, and the organizational characteristics. It then assesses ten offshore wind sites along the Turkish coast, with a total installed capacity of approximately 4.1 GW. The capacity factors are calculated deterministically using the Rayleigh wind-speed distribution and the normalized turbine power curve. Meanwhile, the hydrogen production and cost results are evaluated using a Mamdani-type fuzzy techno-economic model. The fuzzy structure addresses uncertainty in the discount rate, project lifetime, PEM electricity consumption, system efficiency, and hydrogen generation performance using membership functions and centroid defuzzification. The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) range for offshore wind is 48.23–83.58 €/MWh, and the Mamdani centroid values range from 57.19 to 71.81. The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) range obtained using the fuzzy approach is 4.450–7.731 €/kg, whereas the centroid approaches yield 5.302–6.627 €/kg. The lowest LCOH values based on centroids are observed in the Bozcaada and Çeşme areas. This paper demonstrates that offshore wind-based hydrogen could help implement Türkiye’s hydrogen action plan.