LAB #2627 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.0% to 31.7% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.0% to 31.7% (+0.6pp, n=1093) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION phase filter would have excluded trades outside that quarterly phase. In the current 10-trade window, only the 2026-08-07 GBPUSD shorts and possibly the USDCHF entry fall within a plausible MANIPULATION phase (if defined by recent volatility compression). That would remove the XAUUSD LONG win, the AUDUSD win, and the USDCAD win — likely cutting win rate from 60% (6/10) to ~50% (2/4) and reducing net PnL, since the excluded trades were winners. The +0.6pp backtest gain is too small to offset the loss of high-conviction winners in this sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter would reduce trade frequency by roughly 30–40% (if MANIPULATION is a rare phase), concentrating entries into a narrower regime. The backtest suggests a marginal win-rate improvemen Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com