When risk silences optimism: supply chain disruption risk and the reduction of abnormal managerial tone

Purpose Amid intensifying geopolitical frictions and the trend toward de-globalization, supply chain disruptions have emerged as a salient source of risk for firms, yet their implications for managerial disclosure remain unclear. Our study aims to reveal the impact of supply chain disruption risk on managerial tone management during earnings communication conferences. Design/methodology/approach Using data on China A-share-listed firms from 2006 to 2023, we examine how, why, and when supply chain disruption risk affects abnormal managerial tone during earnings communication conferences. Findings Higher disruption risk reduces abnormal managerial positive tone. The effect operates through two channels: first, managers provide more detailed factual explanations in managerial communication, which increases informational density, as evidenced by shorter and more structured sentences, thereby constraining rhetorical and emotional expression; second, higher supply chain disruption risk raises inventory pressure, which suppresses optimism. The effect is more pronounced when investor questioning is intensive, stock prices are overvalued, or supply chain concentration is high. It is more pronounced among firms with greater trade credit supply or lower excess operating profitability. Originality/value Our study contributes to the literature by linking supply chain disruption risk with strategic disclosure practices, and it offers practical implications for enhancing supply chain resilience, improving disclosure quality, and strengthening market competitiveness.