Spatiotemporal Evolution of Production–Living–Ecological Spaces and Their Spatial Associations with Natural Environmental Factors in Hilly Irrigation District: A Case Study of Renshou County, Sichuan Province, China

Irrigation districts are essential to agricultural production, rural development, and food and ecological security. In hilly areas, complex terrain and rapid urbanization intensify competition among production, living, and ecological spaces (PLES). Taking Renshou County in the hilly Dujiangyan Irrigation District as a case, this study examined PLES evolution from 2000 to 2020 and its spatial associations with natural environmental factors using a transition matrix, bivariate Moran’s I, local indicators of spatial association (LISA), and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Results showed substantial PLES restructuring, characterized mainly by the conversion of production–ecological space (Pe-S) into ecological–production space (Ep-S) and living–production space (Lp-S). Clear terrain-gradient differentiation emerged: Pe-S dominated shallow hills, Ep-S concentrated in deep hills, and moderate hills formed transitional production–ecological zones. Elevation and slope showed relatively strong global spatial associations with cropland and forestland (0.3 < |I| < 0.7), whereas hydrological factors generally showed weaker associations (0.1 < |I| < 0.2) but exhibited localized high–high clustering with cropland. GWR further showed spatially varying relationships across terrain settings, including predominantly negative slope coefficients for cropland in deep hills and a shift in forestland from patchy negative coefficients near urban margins to mainly positive elevation and slope coefficients farther away. Land consolidation and infrastructure improvement further concentrated land use in suitable terrain. Future governance should follow natural gradients, enhance agroforestry integration and coordinated water allocation across slope positions, and promote the transition from spatial differentiation to functional coupling.