Economic, environmental, and operational consequences of maritime chokepoint disruptions: A probabilistic assessment framework

Recent geopolitical tensions have renewed concerns regarding the vulnerability of strategically important maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, to disruption events. Given the critical role of these corridors in global trade and energy transportation, disruptions may generate substantial economic and environmental consequences. This study develops an integrated probabilistic framework that combines potential vessel-exposure estimation, direct operational-cost assessment, scenario-based emission modelling, emission-related external-cost valuation, and vessel-type-specific economic break-even analysis within a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Three disruption scenarios representing short-term (3 days), medium-term (7 days), and prolonged (14 days) closures were evaluated. Mean direct operational costs increased from USD 66.49 million under the short-term scenario to USD 1.44 billion under the prolonged scenario. Under S3, mean emissions reached 261,727 t of CO 2 , 6833 t of NO x , and 121.17 t of SO 2 , while mean emission-related external costs reached USD 82.11 million. Model-based economic break-even waiting times were 18.44 days for tankers, 18.63 days for container vessels, and 27.66 days for bulk carriers. Severe-scenario emission and external-cost distributions were strongly right-skewed, and their mean values decreased by approximately 45% under an alternative triangular input-distribution specification, highlighting sensitivity to distributional assumptions. The proposed framework distinguishes relatively stable scenario patterns from absolute severe-scenario magnitudes that depend more strongly on uncertainty assumptions and provides a transparent basis for maritime disruption assessment and resilience-oriented planning.