Social protection as climate adaptation: Evidence from Pakistan’s Benazir Income Support Programme in mitigating food insecurity under rainfall and flood shocks

Climate-induced shocks pose a growing threat to food security in climate-vulnerable countries, particularly in South Asia. This study examines whether participation in Pakistan’s Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), one of the largest unconditional cash transfer initiatives in the Global South, is associated with greater household food-security resilience during rainfall and flood shocks. Using four rounds of household panel data (2011–2016) merged with tehsil-level meteorological and flood-exposure data. We estimate GLS panel models with interaction terms. Results show that rainfall and flood shocks are associated with lower household calorie intake and dietary diversity, thereby worsening food insecurity among vulnerable populations. However, during shock periods, BISP beneficiaries experience significantly better food-security outcomes than non-recipients. The interaction estimates further show that the programme’s buffering association varies across shock types. The association is strongest and most robust for calorie intake and calorie-based food-security status under rainfall shocks. Evidence is weaker for dietary diversity and less consistent under floods, particularly at higher flood severity. Because programme participation is not randomly assigned, the estimates are interpreted as moderating associations rather than definitive causal effects. These findings highlight the dual role of social protection programmes as both poverty alleviation tools and climate adaptation mechanisms. We discuss policy implications for integrating cash transfers into broader climate resilience strategies, including disaster risk reduction, climate-resilient infrastructure, and localized adaptation planning in emerging Asian regions.