Digital Verification Pathways for Regenerative Agriculture: A Systemic Sustainability Analysis of Environmental Performance

Growing consumer demand for sustainable food has pushed regenerative agriculture (RA) to the forefront of green marketing, often promoted through claims that outpace verifiable environmental outcomes. Because RA is defined by outcome-based principles rather than standardized certification, a perception–reality gap can emerge, as herbicide reliance in no-till systems or logistical inefficiencies erode farm-level gains. Using qualitative systemic analysis and scenario modeling, this study examines structural barriers to RA implementation across the European agri-food sector, comparing three maturity-based scenarios—Idealized Marketing, Mature EU Markets (Germany/France), and Transitional Economy (Romania)—through an author-calibrated Green Claim Veracity Index (Vi) built on four sustainability KPIs. Results show that logistical complexity in mature markets can dilute on-farm carbon benefits by approximately 20%, while in transitional economies, fragmented land ownership and a “Logistical Paradox” may neutralize or reverse these gains. The study proposes CTSAF (Converging Technologies for Sustainable Agri-Food), integrating IoT, AI, including satellite-based cross-verification against the “Oracle Problem”, and blockchain for end-to-end traceability aligned with the proposed EU Green Claims Directive and an emerging Digital Product Passport framework. The findings suggest that verifiable sustainability is a system-wide property rather than an isolated farm-level outcome, offering policymakers concrete levers for transparency and smallholder digital inclusion.