Temporal dynamics of biomass and carbon stocks over twenty five years in the Pathariya forest complex of Central India

Long-term assessments of forest biomass and carbon dynamics are essential for understanding their role in climate change mitigation. This study examines temporal changes in stand structure, biomass and carbon stocks across six forest communities of the Pathariya forest complex, Central India, over a 25 year period (2001–2025). A vegetation resurvey was conducted using standardized quadrat-based methods and above- and belowground biomass were estimated using allometric equations. Inter-site variations were analyzed using one-way ANOVA followed by Fisher’s LSD test, whereas temporal differences between survey periods were evaluated using the Mann–Whitney U test. Results revealed that tree density declined significantly ( p = 0.01 and Hedges’ g = − 2.33) by approximately 50% over the study period, while basal area showed only a marginal overall reduction ( p = 0.94 and Hedges’ g = − 0.06), with sharp decline at highly disturbed sites. Although total biomass increased marginally from 116.25 to 120.18 Mg ha −1 , representing a net landscape-level increase of only 3.2%, this apparent stability concealed pronounced site-level heterogeneity. Biomass exhibited contrasting site-specific trajectories, increasing substantially at the relatively less disturbed Sites 1 (81%) and 2 (42%), but declining sharply at the heavily disturbed Sites 3 (− 50%) and 6 (− 52%). Species-wise analysis indicated uneven contributions to biomass change, with disturbance tolerant species i.e. Butea monosperma and dominant species Tectona grandis contributing 8.23 Mg/ha and 23.09 Mg/ha respectively to gains, while several ecologically important species were lost over the years. The results demonstrate that disturbance intensity is a key determinant of long-term biomass and carbon dynamics, necessitating site-specific management, effective disturbance regulation, and sustained monitoring to maintain forest carbon stocks and enhance the climate change mitigation potential of tropical dry deciduous forests.