Predictors of students’ negative achievement emotions in mathematics: a cross-national analysis based on Control-Value Theory

Mathematics learning is shaped not only by cognitive skills but also by students’ emotional experiences, which influence their engagement, persistence, and academic outcomes. Grounded in Pekrun’s Control-Value Theory (CVT), this study examined the individual, home, and school-context factors associated with fifth-grade students’ negative achievement emotions in mathematics across Norway, South Africa, and Türkiye using TIMSS 2023 data. Secondary data from nationally representative TIMSS 2023 samples were analyzed using binary logistic regression models with TIMSS sampling weights and jackknife repeated replication procedures. The study focused on two negative emotions: boredom and confusion, and one avoidance inclination toward mathematics learning. Predictor variables included instructional clarity, digital self-efficacy, sense of school belonging, home resources for learning, and school emphasis on academic success, together with exploratory interaction terms informed by the CVT framework. The findings indicated that some predictors operated similarly across countries, whereas others varied depending on the educational context. Digital self-efficacy was frequently associated with lower levels of negative emotions, whereas instructional clarity was strongly associated with lower odds of confusion in South Africa and Türkiye. Several significant interaction effects further suggested that the associations between contextual factors and students’ emotions varied across educational contexts. The results are broadly consistent with CVT-informed expectations while also highlighting the importance of sociocultural and systemic contexts in understanding students’ emotional experiences in mathematics. The study contributes to the cross-national literature on achievement emotions by demonstrating how individual and environmental factors jointly relate to students’ negative emotional experiences in mathematics. The findings provide practical implications for designing instructional environments that support students’ perceived control and are associated with lower levels of negative achievement emotions in mathematics.