Economic Vulnerability of Cereal Production in Northern Algeria under Climate Change: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Strategies Using DSSAT-SWOT

This study examines the economic vulnerability of cereal production to climate change across four key regions of northern Algeria, Blida, Tizi Ouzou, Tiaret, and Sétif, selected for their agro-climatic diversity and strategic contribution to national grain supply. By integrating DSSAT crop modeling with a SWOT-AHP multi-criteria framework, the research evaluates adaptation strategies through a cost-benefit perspective. Climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2025–2050) suggest potential cereal yield declines of 18% to 40% by mid-century, which could raise annual cereal import costs by $1.2 billion and result in the loss of up to 12,000 agricultural jobs. Among the climatic constraints, heat stress during the flowering stage emerges as the most critical yield-limiting factor. Stakeholder-weighted prioritization highlights drip irrigation (BCR = 2.8) and drought-tolerant seed varieties (BCR = 1.9) as the most economically viable interventions, though both require substantial initial investment (≈ $500 million) and subsidy reforms. The findings reveal significant trade-offs within Algeria’s agricultural policy but underscore that reallocating existing cereal subsidies toward climate-smart technologies could considerably strengthen resilience while maintaining food security in semi-arid regions. Beyond Algeria, the study provides a replicable framework for other countries facing similar climate–agriculture challenges, combining biophysical modeling with participatory decision-making to guide cost-effective adaptation.