Adolescents’ Future Marriage Preferences: The Codevelopment of National Identity, Attitudes Towards Immigration and Intergroup Marriage Preferences Across Time

Human development involves constructing an imagined future, with young people often envisioning their future spouse and family composition. The extent to which national, religious and racial preferences emerge during this time is largely unknown. Using a large sample of Australian-born, English-speaking adolescents, the relationships between national identity, attitudes towards immigration and ingroup marriage preferences were assessed into young adulthood. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models revealed significant within-person effects, whereby higher national identity indirectly predicted stronger national and racial marriage preferences 5 years later via increasingly critical attitudes towards immigration. Further, stronger national and racial marriage preferences predicted future increases in negative attitudes towards immigration, which in turn was associated with increased national identity several years later. Although marrying someone from the same religion was reported by young people to be important to them, national identity was not associated with changes in religious marriage preferences. These longitudinal effects suggest that simultaneous efforts to promote a more inclusive national identity and normalise intergroup intimacy could reduce prejudices during a formative developmental period.