MATCHED PENSION ACCOUNTS, PENSION-RELATED ASSETS, AND OLD-AGE INCOME INEQUALITY: A STRESS-TESTED SCENARIO MODEL OF PERSONAL RETIREMENT STRATEGIES IN UZBEKISTAN

This article develops a stress-tested scenario model of personal retirement strategies for an economy in which the public pay-as-you-go pension pillar provides a moderate replacement rate, the funded component remains at an early stage of development, and households supplement prospective old-age income primarily through quasi-pension assets, including deposits, foreign currency holdings, life insurance, and rental property. Using parameters for Uzbekistan for 2025–2026, the study estimates retirement income under ten strategies for a representative worker across baseline, monetary-stress, and property-market correction scenarios. It also derives the saving rate required to achieve target replacement rates and evaluates a 2026 proposal under which a 5% employee contribution to a funded pension account would be supplemented by an additional public contribution of 2.5%. The model projects that the public pension pillar alone would provide a replacement rate of approximately 32%, compared with the 40% benchmark specified in ILO Convention No. 102 for the relevant standard beneficiary and qualifying conditions. Under the stress scenarios, singleasset strategies experience reductions of up to two-thirds in voluntary retirement income, whereas strategies combining real and financial assets retain the highest income under the least favourable scenario. Within the model, the effect of strategy choice on old-age income is approximately four times greater than that associated with a 50% wage premium. The proposed public matching contribution is equivalent, under the model assumptions, to approximately 1.6 percentage points of additional annual real return; however, its capacity to narrow the modelled retirement-income adequacy gap depends on funded accounts generating a positive real return.