Same as it ever was: the “voice” and “exit” patterns of Central American returnees

Over the past several years, hundreds of thousands of emigrants across the world have returned to their home countries, as deportation policies have been vigorously pursued in many of the major destination countries. In the Americas, the Mexican and U.S. governments’ heightened emphasis on forced removal has led to an increasing number of individuals returning to their countries of origin. This trend raises important questions about what returnees face upon reentry, and what impact they might have on their communities and local political systems. To address these questions, we propose a theoretical framework identifying the conditions under which returnees exercise “voice” (engage in civic and political participation) and/or “exit” (seek to migrate again). Drawing on literature linking human insecurity to both migration and political engagement, we argue that returnees are more likely than non-migrants to encounter structural challenges similar to those that prompted their initial migration and, in part because of these repeated experiences with various forms of insecurity, are more likely to engage in both voice and exit. We test our hypotheses using nationally representative survey data from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras collected in 2022 and 2024. The results support the proposition that returnees disproportionately and more severely experience human insecurity, including heightened exposure to crime, state corruption, and food insecurity. These conditions help explain their higher levels of local political participation and migration intentions compared to non-migrants, even after accounting for those factors that make returnees distinct from their compatriots. In short, because of the persistent and pernicious forms of insecurity that await many returnees in northern Central America, we find these individuals respond by pursuing a strategy of voice while making plans to exit.