LAB #2636 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.0% to 38.6% (+7.6pp, n=70) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.0% to 38.6% (+7.6pp, n=70) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a NZDUSD LONG-only filter would have had zero effect on the current live window — none of the 10 trades listed involve NZDUSD. The filter would not have altered any entry, exit, or outcome in this sample. Therefore, the claimed +7.6pp win-rate improvement is untestable against this specific window; it neither helps nor hurts current exposure. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a currency-pair-and-direction-specific filter is likely to be regime-dependent. NZDUSD LONGs may have performed well during a specific carry-trade or risk-on phase, but that edge can decay or invert quickly with RBNZ policy shifts, commodity price moves, or USD strength. The sample (n=70) is small; the +7.6pp could be noise, especially if the filter overfits to a recent favorable stretch. Risk: it may silently remove profitable Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com