Land transformation driven by wind and solar development in Brazilian municipalities

Abstract In the last decade, Brazil’s energy sector has been moved from an exclusively hydroelectric and thermal mix to incorporate large-scale production of wind and solar photovoltaic energy. This energy transition is synchronized with the global imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the installation of large-scale wind and solar power plants has led to land use and land cover changes (LUCC) that require more detailed evaluation at the municipal scale. This work uses remote sensing data to examine LUCC in more than 120 Brazilian municipalities where wind and solar power plants have been built. The LUCC were quantified, both before and after the deployment of these plants, to determine landscape changes over time. The results reveal statistically significant correlation and causality between urban expansion in small and medium-sized municipalities within the Caatinga biome and agricultural development both in the Cerrado biome and in municipalities hosting wind projects, all linked to the timeline of renewable energy deployment. Other municipalities grouping criteria, as federative states and economic status did not show significant statistical response when analyzing renewable development and municipal LUCC. These findings offer valuable insights for informing future regional planning and land use policies for balancing national energy goals with local socio-environmental sustainability. Our results point towards a critical need for bottom-up planning approaches that genuinely incorporate local ecological vulnerabilities and socio-economic realities, rather than relying solely on broad administrative or economic metrics, to ensure that renewable energy expansion genuinely supports, rather than compromises, regional sustainability goals.