Evaluating centralized decarbonization vs decentralized universal access for Kenya's power sector

This study evaluated Kenya’s power sector transition, comparing a centralized decarbonization approach against a decentralized access pathway. Utilizing the CLEWS framework, the analysis was conducted to determine the most cost-effective, reliable and sustainable electricity generation mix.The findings demonstrate that a centralized, grid-tied network anchored by geothermal plants achieves near-complete power sector de-carbonization by 2040 at minimal long-term system cost. Conversely, hyper-decentralized off-grid solar arrangements trigger immediate public capital shocks and a rigid, multi-year reinvestment cycle due to rapid battery degradation. Low asset utilization rates force off-grid solar scenarios to inflate nominal installed capacity by a factor of approximately seven to meet basic demand. Integrating high-tier commercial loads like solar irrigation and agro-processing would optimize the system load factor of the centralized grid, whereas it technically stresses and forces expensive oversizing of isolated mini-grids.To maintain national grid stability, the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum(MoEP) must prioritize grid-tied geothermal public-private partnerships while restructuring off-grid mini-grids into flexible, grid-ready sub-networks. Simultaneously, the National Treasury should halt large-scale borrowing for standalone domestic solar and instead establish a dedicated National Energy Sinking Fund to cover recurring battery replacements while bundling capital with productive-use appliance financing. Finally, County Governments must map local agricultural value chains to coordinate directly with Kenya Power for strategic grid drop-points in high-potential economic zones, establishing a unified hybrid planning framework.