Areas of high risk for mammalian biodiversity and nature's contributions to people under global warming

Abstract Climate change drives more frequent and intense droughts, fires and heatwaves. Combined with land‐use change, it dramatically increases species extinction risk and the loss of Nature's Contributions to People (NCP). Here we analyzed the combined risk to species and NCP under future scenarios of global change. We developed a comparative extinction‐risk model for mammals sensitive to fire, drought, and extreme temperatures, integrating intrinsic life‐history traits with extrinsic climate and land‐use related predictors to estimate current and future extinction probabilities. Future risk was projected under alternative global warming scenarios representing low and high emissions pathways (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5). We then identified high‐risk areas for both mammals and NCP, to highlight synergies for biodiversity conservation and NCP preservation. Our predictions show that 248 out of 474 species (52.3%) face an increased extinction risk (mean increase 0.36), while 226 (47.7%) face risk reduction (mean decrease 0.35) under the most pessimistic scenario. The highest extinction risk increases occurred in Malaysia, Western Indonesia, Madagascar, and Eastern Australia. These regions are also high‐risk areas for potential NCP: freshwater regulation, air quality regulation, and mitigation of extreme events. Preserving these regions is crucial to reduce habitat loss and human‐induced extinctions. Safeguarding these ecosystems, which provide carbon storage, clean water, and extreme fire mitigation, demands priority via targeted policies, sustainable land‐use, and climate adaptation to protect both biodiversity and human well‐being.