LAB #2633 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.0% to 31.6% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.0% to 31.6% (+0.6pp, n=1094) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter would have blocked all trades in the current window, since none of the 10 listed entries occurred during a MANIPULATION quarterly phase (all are dated Aug 3–7, 2026, which falls in a different phase). This would have eliminated 6 wins and 4 losses, netting a PnL change of roughly +0 (removing both winners and losers equally), but would have reduced trade count to zero — a catastrophic outcome for the live account if the filter were active now. The +0.6pp backtest gain is not visible here; instead, the filter would have halted all activity, suggesting the phase classification may be misaligned with the current calendar or that the backtest window differs from this live sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would likely reduce trade fre Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22931209
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2633 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.0% to 31.6% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2633 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.0% to 31.6% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.0% to 31.6% (+0.6pp, n=1094) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter would have blocked all trades in the current window, since none of the 10 listed entries occurred during a MANIPULATION quarterly phase (all are dated Aug 3–7, 2026, which falls in a different phase). This would have eliminated 6 wins and 4 losses, netting a PnL change of roughly +0 (removing both winners and losers equally), but would have reduced trade count to zero — a catastrophic outcome for the live account if the filter were active now. The +0.6pp backtest gain is not visible here; instead, the filter would have halted all activity, suggesting the phase classification may be misaligned with the current calendar or that the backtest window differs from this live sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would likely reduce trade fre Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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